Tag Archives for bonds

The Secret To Technical Analysis

Technical analysis of the stock market, or any other market such as Forex, Bonds, Futures, is how most traders and investors make their trading decisions. This is as opposed to fundamental analysis which most people more agree is pretty much done as a way of making trading decisions, unless of course you are Warren Buffet!.

You only have to think back to major stock market scams like Enron to know that it is almost impossible for the average, and even very sophisticated fund manager or hedge fund trader to really know what the real financial state of a company is.

Just by reading the balance sheet and other quaterly reports they release gives you a very poor insight into the real health of the company. Whereas the technical charts of the company tend to give the real picture of what the market thinks of the value of the company. In the case of Enron even simple technical analysis told you to SELL when the stock was in the $80-90 range, this is why technical analysis of stocks is so popular.

So what are the secrets to technical analysis?, I’m about to tell you, here are my golden rules:

* Only use 3-5 simple technical analysis indicators

* Make sure that you understand how the indicators that you have selected work, what the parameter settings are and in what market conditions they are effective

* After selecting your indicators and parameter settings don’t mess with them.

The real secret to technical analysis is to get VERY familiar with your choosen indicators, and really this can only be done by watching and studying the market, so that you get to the point that you TRUST them.

The fact is that in any market, for each bar, there are only 5 pieces of information, the open, close, high, low and volume, yet there are now hundreds of indicators. Most of these indicators are displaying the same information and so are redundant.

For the record my set of indicators are:

* 4 Simple Moving Averages

* Bollinger Bands

* MACD

* Stochastics

But the way I use them is quite special, to learn more about how to become an expert at technical analysis visit:

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The Debate: Stocks versus Bonds

Brought to you by ETF trend trading.

Whereas shares give investors part ownership of a company, bonds are loans made by investors to corporations or governments. Rather than benefiting from company profits the way that stock holders do, bond holders receive a fixed rate of return - a percentage of the bond’s original offering price. The return is called the ‘coupon rate’. Bonds have a maturity date at which time the principal amount is returned. Bonds can be issued for any period of time - some take up to 30 years to mature.

Bonds always carry the risk that the principal amount may not be paid back. Companies with higher credit worthiness are more likely to be safe investments but their coupon rate will be lower than companies with lower credit ratings. Credit ratings are provided by firms such as Standard and Poor and Moody’s Investor Service. Credit ratings range from a high AAA to a low D.

US government bonds are considered to be the safest type of bonds. Blue chip corporations (those with established performance records that span over many decades) are also very safe bond investments. Smaller corporations have a greater risk of defaulting on their bonds, but bond-holders are preferential creditors and will get compensated before share holders in the event that the business goes bankrupt.

Bonds can be bought and sold on the open market. Their value fluctuates according to the level of interest rates in the general economy. For example, if you hold a $1000 bond that pays 5% per year in interest you can sell the bond at higher than face value as long as interest rates are below 5%. If they rise above 5%, your bond can still be sold but usually at less than face value. This is because investors are able to get a higher interest rate than what your bond pays so in order to offset the difference your bond has to be sold at a lower cost.

Most bonds are traded in the Over-The-Counter (OTC) market which is made up of banks and security firms. Some corporate bonds are also listed on share exchanges and may be bought through stock brokers. New issues of bonds are usually sold in $5000 increments while bonds bought and sold after the initial issues are quoted in increments of $100. A bond that is listed at 96 is selling for $96 per $100 face value.

Stocks or Bonds

When deciding whether to invest in stocks or bonds, the risks versus the potentials have to be weighed. stocks have much greater potential to increase in value but they are also more subject to market fluctuations. Investment grade bonds (those with a rating of BBB or better) carry less risk but offer a relatively low yield.

Most investors agree that for the short term, bonds offer greater security and return. The situation changes, however, when time spans of longer than 10 years are considered. The stock market has consistently outperformed bond investments by a large factor. This is because companies continue to increase in value and any short term fluctuations in the stock market are smoothed out over time.

Bonds still have their place in most portfolios, however. They provide a stable investment which helps to cushion against stock market fluctuation. A mixture of investments including stocks from various industries, bonds and other fixed-income investments is the way to provide maximum growth while securing your investment funds for the future.

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