“Stay extended precious metals” .
I’m beginning to believe that’s Graeme Irvine’s mantra.
He’s the company columnist on Longer Life’s Bourse page, and I’ll leave it to you to discover his reasons for this four-word chant. Amidst Graeme’s siren calls, I’ve taken notice of his recent every day listings of silver transfers. It seems that HSBC-Hong Kong is in the process of accumulating a substantially substantial percentage from the current marketplace inventory. The variety is something like 60%, an achievement I find as breathtaking as it can be intriguing.
Why would that much of the world’s investment-grade silver be moved to a single depository? So far, I’ve not been able to discover anyone willing to offer an answer. The accumulation is public information, so I’m not suspecting a conspiracy.
I consider most investors recall the Hunt brothers’ clumsy attempt to corner the silver market three decades ago — driving their Texan empire from billionaire to bankrupt inside eight years — and wouldn’t believe of trying to duplicate that stunt.
Super-investor Warren Buffet is, of course, a lot a lot more sophisticated. His acquisition of 130million ounces of silver approximately nine many years ago was made in tranches calculated to coincide using the market rather than drive it. All outward appearances indicate that he has no clandestine intentions; instead, he’s basically substantiating his confidence in the metal and possible lack thereof within the long-term strength from the dollar.
Perhaps the HSBC-Hong Kong hoarding is really a result of an announcement made in June 2005 through the United Kingdom’s Barclay’s Bank in which they filed their intent using the USA’s Securities & Exchange Commission to establish an Exchange Trading Fund (’ETF’) for silver. Specifically, the applicant can be a Barclay’s subsidiary, iShares Silver Trust, as well as the process gained momentum in January 2006 if your SEC approved their listing about the American Stock Exchange.
The Silver ETF is meeting with strong resistance, most notably by the Silver Users Association (SUA), who represent entities who make, sell and distribute products related to silver. Their complaint is that so that you can support the ETF, so much silver would must be taken out from the marketplace and held in reserve that its membership would be burdened through the metal’s greater expense. As the SUA membership processes 80% of all silver produced inside the USA, they represent a significant voice in this matter.
Ted Butler is one of the most respected silver analysts inside the world. His opinion is that, no matter what the outcome with the Barclay’s application, the entire episode is really a positive development for silver investors.
Initial, let him explain how Exchange Trading Funds for commodities operate, and then describe how the Barclay’s proposal is being positioned:
“In order to establish a commodity ETF, a economic institution buys and stores a quantity from the commodity in question and then issues shares of common stock at a fixed unit of conversion to represent fractional ownership of that commodity. Within the case of silver, Barclays would acquire the metal, in industry standard 1000oz bars, have them stored in London and elsewhere, and issue common stock shares in the ratio of 1 share of stock for every ten ounces of silver. The shares would then be traded on a recognized stock exchange, hence the name, exchange traded fund. Inside the case with the Barclay’s Silver ETF . they’ve even made the decision about the stock symbol, SLV. The amount of silver bought and stored would increase and decrease depending upon the expense demand for that shares, similar to how the gold ETFs currently function.”
The practicalities of a silver ETF include:
- Stock certificates are undoubtedly easier for your investor to store than the metal itself, and
- The ‘common stock’ format permits much more categories of investors the eligibility to participate.
What is interesting about the Barclay’s proposal is that its goal is always to put 130million ounces of silver into reserve, the exact level of Warren Buffet’s holdings. Could they be using that precedent being a model? Burton notes that even though Buffet was careful not to disrupt the industry, the price tag of silver still doubled during that accumulation. Furthermore, Burton says, “I see nothing inside the Barclays prospectus suggesting this sort of buying restraint, either in time or price.”
So, Butler reasons, this makes the situation most favorable for involved investors:
“This silver ETF announcement can be a true win-win for silver investors. (If) their silver ETF becomes effective, the impact on the cost of silver will probably be great. That’s win number 1, obvious and straightforward.
“But if . this ETF by no means sees the light of day, that is going to be a big win as well for silver investors. Why? Simply because it will prove for all to see just how critical the supply/demand and inventory situation is in silver. If the government says no method to this ETF, it is going to be for one reason only – there isn’t enough real silver inside the world to fund it.”
Either way, it’s a development worth watching. Graeme lists the Comex figures every day at the end of his column and usually mentions when one more allotment of silver moves to HSBC-Hong Kong. The growth of those figures could properly be the ‘tracer’ of issues to arrive.
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